On September 11, 2001, terrorists proved they could deliver a
devastating blow to a global heavyweight-the United States of
America. The resulting economic downturn and fear has affected the
role that energy abundance plays on the world stage. But even with
the devastating events of 9-11 still so much a part of industry's
psyche, nothing could deliver a knock-out blow to industrialized
nations like pulling the plug on their economic lifeblood: oil. In
this exclusive interview, Neal Adams discusses his new book,
Terrorism & Oil, and just how vulnerable our offshore oil and gas
infrastructure really is.
Neal Adams's book, Terrorism & Oil (Penwell), relates the critical
role that oil plays in every American's daily life. For example, a
disruption in the oil supply would cause a job reduction of 10
million - an economic disaster unimaginable in scope.
Beginning with the economic impact of oil and OPEC's potential to use
oil as a weapon, Adams educates readers on:
- The world's oil supply choke points,
- How and where terrorists will attack the world's oil supplies,
- How the US and global economies could suffer long-term damage from
oil supply disruptions or a war with Iraq,
- Which oilfields and interests will be targets, and effective steps
that can be taken to prevent attacks.
The overall conclusion Adams draws is a frightening one: a
knowledgeable terrorist can bring the world to its knees and hit us
where it hurts the most - our oil supply.
In researching and writing the book, Adams drew upon his expertise as
an oil industry firefighter, blowout control specialist, engineer,
and consultant. His career took him to 35 countries, including all
the oil-producing regions. Adams was instrumental in extinguishing
the fires set by Saddam Hussein in the Kuwaiti oilfields during the
Gulf War, and was honored with a plaque from the Kingdom of Kuwait in
appreciation for his efforts.
Adams has held top-secret clearance with the CIA, consulting on the
Russian oil economy and its relationship to military issues. He
conducts courses and has consulted for numerous international
regulatory groups (including Lloyd's of London) on issues of safety,
security, and terrorism. He was also the technical advisor to Steven
Seagal on the Warner Brothers movie, On Deadly Ground.
Adams is the author of five books, 60 journal publications, and
numerous technical research reports. He has been featured by many
local, national, and international media outlets, including the BBC
and Forbes Magazine. A black belt and eight-time karate world
champion, Adams lives in Houston, Texas, with his wife. He was
gracious enough to answer our questions regarding the underwater
aspects of a possible terrorist strike.
UW: What would be the general impact of significant terrorist strikes
against oil-related targets, both on and offshore?
NA: The US is an oil-addicted society and the addiction is growing.
Americans flip on a light switch without considering the source of
the electricity. Americans take for granted that they will always
have toothpaste, soft drinks, golf balls, and water hoses - all
existent because of oil. A reduction in the industrialized world's
oil supply will lead to a crippling change in its citizens' standard
of living. Are you prepared to go back to 19th century living?
UW: We are familiar with the "terrorists take rig workers hostage"
scenario. Is this ploy still used by terrorist groups, or are they
focusing more on the rigs and vessels themselves, rather than the
workers?
NA: Seizure of rigs and offshore structures is becoming a commonplace
event. We saw this more in 2002 in Nigeria.
Also, in Colombia, terrorists are moving away from bombing pipelines
toward attacking rigs and refineries. Pipeline attacks were reduced
from about 200 to 45, while a number of rigs, supply depots,
refineries, and loading terminals have been attacked. This coincides
with terrorist statements that they would begin to focus on the
larger infrastructure facilities.
The same is true in Indonesia. ExxonMobil has been targeted,
particularly in the Aceh region in northern Indonesia. The same holds
true for the Indonesian oil fields, but to a smaller degree thus far.
UW: Can you describe the ways offshore oil rigs are specifically
vulnerable to the threat of terrorism?
NA: Offshore rigs (platforms, etc.) are the largest industrial
complexes in the world that are void of security measures. This
includes security systems, personnel, and any means of repelling an
attack. This anamoly in the industrial community is due largely to
the prior absence of a real need for security, save perhaps for the
forementioned countries of Nigeria, Colombia, and Indonesia.
The vulnerability begins with the jumping-off points where crew and
supply boats have their docks and heliports have loading terminals.
These sites have no security measures, are manned by non-security
trained personnel, and provide little or no means of equipment
inspections for items to be sent offshore.
At the rig or platform, security and surveillance capabilities are
non-existent.
Further, offshore structures contain large quantities of industrial
materials suitable for making devastating bombs, so ordinary
explosives are not required.
A greater threat may be the simple commandeering of a heavily loaded
workboat as it nears the rig or platform, and then ramming the
platform while under maximum throttle.
UW: Can you detail some past instances of terrorism in the offshore
oilfield that Americans may not be aware of?
NA: Some have been touched upon in my earlier comments. Seizure of
jackup rigs and platforms are common in the aforementioned countries.
Also, it is becoming more common in Angola, Gabon, Ivory Coast, and,
to a lesser degree, in South Africa.
Remember that this is often terrorism-for-profit and not necessarily
terrorism for political ends. As such, it is likely to continue long
after Al-Qaeda fades into the history books. Also, it is more likely
to spread worldwide, as many groups will see the financial benefit
even though they may have no political motives.
UW: Incredibly, some radical environmentalists may actually be
secretly in favor of sabotaging offshore oil rigs. What are some of
the trickle-down consequences of oil rig terrorism that the average
citizen might not think of, but would affect them significantly?
NA: The offshore industry, as well as other industries, is based on a
precept often overlooked. Companies are willing to invest billions of
dollars only when that risk can be spread to others via insurance.
Since these offshore structures cost billions of dollars, a terrorist
attack on only a few sites could cause a formidable rise in insurance
premiums.
Further, cancellation of terrorist coverage altogether is a topic
being considered by some of the world's leading underwriters. I
attended a private retreat of underwriters at Lillehammer, Norway, in
February where this topic was discussed.
UW: What are the tools and techniques commercial and military divers
can use to thwart terrorist threats to a rig? Would the same tools
and techniques apply to protecting a floating vessel (FPSO, tanker,
etc.)?
NA: As we know the industry today, terrorists can't be stopped. Our
doors are open and will likely stay open until we have several
attacks.
Prevention must begin at the loading docks. We need personnel and
equipment screening. Also, prior background checks on personnel will
probably become common in the next two or three years. Remember that
our industry is a difficult work environment, so many of our good
workers are tough characters that, often, are hard to distinguish
from potential terrorists.
Again, this personnel and equipment screening needs to extend to
workboats, work vessels, and helicopter pilots.
UW: How can the various underwater vehicles - manned submarines,
remotely-operated vehicles (ROVs), and autonomous underwater vehicles
(AUVs) - be used to prevent terrorist activities on rigs and
pipelines? Are military agencies and companies already utilizing
these tools in the war on terror?
NA: This technology is not being used at present. Further, many law
enforcement agencies are currently concerned about the application
for small submarines loaded with explosives being used by terrorists.
Although seemingly far-fetched, these submarines are now becoming a
mainstay in the drug trafficking business and are available for a
purchase cost of about $600,000.
ROVs are not likely to be used since they require a tether of a
modest length that is attached to a surface vessel.
UW: We heard of a brother of bin Laden's trying to purchase a one-man
sub a few years ago. Have you heard of instances where some or all of
these tools and techniques have been employed by the "bad guys?"
NA: Not to date... but the day isn't over. I hope this conveys my
opinion that it is only a matter of time.
UW: You have described the considerable threat to rigs and pipelines,
but what about subsea power cables - are they a target, why or why
not?
NA: My opinion is that they are a target, but to a lesser degree than
oil facilities. If I were planning an attack on a power transmission
apparatus, land-based targets are more accessible and have a greater
impact.
In conclusion, my view is that a well-coordinated attack on the oil
industry will occur in the very near future. The time and place will
be selected to achieve a maximum impact.
My concern is this: two petroleum engineers of average intelligence
and about $20,000 in funding could bring the American oil industry to
a halt over the course of several days with a disruption that could
last four-to-six weeks. If timed during a blast of arctic air,
thousands to tens of thousands would probably perish before energy
could be restored. UW
For more on Neal Adams or his books, email nealadams@terrorismandoil.net.